Political scientists make their election predictions
Are you ready to call the election? Mitt Romney certainly isn't, nor for that matter is President Barack Obama. But a few hardy academics have done so. Out now are a baker's dozen forecasts produced by political scientists that predict the outcome in November.
Polls give Obama the advantage, nationally and in most of the battleground states, but they are, as is often said, snapshots in time, not predictions of the future. The election forecasts are in fact predictions, based on various and varied statistical models. Most give the advantage to the president, but the verdict is not unanimous.
The 13 projections are contained in the new issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, which is published by the American Political Science Association. Eight of them project that Obama will win the popular vote; five say the popular vote will go to Romney. But the degree of certainty in those forecasts differs. One projection favoring the president says there is an 88 percent certainty that he'll win, while two others forecasting Obama say there is only a 57 percent certainty.
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